Since taking office in January, United States President Donald Trump has been hyping about the performance of the US economy.
“In the first four years, we had the greatest economy in the history of our country,” Trump (falsely) said on April 17 while meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. “I think we’re going to do even better this time,” he added, referring to his first term between 2016 and 2020.
At a March 24 Cabinet meeting, he said, “We have numbers, and we have job generation, that I don’t think we’ve ever seen before. See how it works out, but I think the economy is going to go through the roof.”
Trump hasn’t been in office long enough to accumulate much economic data. The data that’s available, on jobs and inflation, is favourable. Other measurables, though – consumer confidence, business expectations, inflation forecasts and the stock market – show widespread concern about where the US economy is headed under his policies, especially his sharp tariff increases. And the stock market’s April performance was its worst since 1932, when the US suffered the Great Depression.
Since January, the number of jobs has risen by 345,000, in line with the rate of increase over the previous year. The unemployment rate is 4.2 percent, a low level by historical standards, and initial unemployment claims are holding steady. And for one of the key 2024 campaign themes for Trump – inflation – the year-over-year rate has ticked down to nearly normal levels, from 3.0 percent in January to 2.4 percent in March.
In a range of long-running surveys, consumers and businesses expressed worry that Trump’s tariffs will raise prices, cause a recession, or both. Economists consider these metrics as barometers of how well the economy will perform in the near and medium term.
“All the ‘soft’ data is bad, even though it hasn’t bled through to the hard data yet,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the centre-right American Action Forum.
Business owners say they’re already feeling the pinch.
David Dennison, director of the Original Pancake House restaurant chain in suburban Washington, DC, said costs have increased by more than 20 percent on food items such as oranges, peppers, avocados and tomatoes.
“We also anticipate that equipment failures, parts, and new equipment will experience substantial price increases,” Dennison said. “However, the most concerning aspect is the anticipated difficulty in sourcing parts for our equipment.”
Worried consumers and skittish businesses could produce a slowdown in spending, investment, sales and employment growth, meaning bad vibes could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, said Dean Baker, co-founder of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research.
Consumer sentiment is sliding
For decades, two surveys have measured consumer confidence, and neither looks good for Trump’s first 100 days.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, which measures consumer optimism about the economy, has dropped every month since December 2024. Its 52.2 mark for April represents a 29 percent decline since December 2024. The April figure was lower than for all but two months of Joe Biden’s presidency, a period that included a 40-year-high inflation rate in mid-2022.
The other long-running survey is published by the Conference Board, a business research group. This metric has also fallen every month on Trump’s watch, with a measurement now 15 percent lower than it was in December 2024.
This tracks with other polls. For the first time since at least 2001, the pollster Gallup found that more than half of Americans say their financial situation is getting worse. The April figure of 53 percent is higher than it was during the Great Recession of 2008 to 2009, when it maxed out at 49 percent.
Small businesses – historically an antitax and antiregulatory constituency that had high hopes for Trump’s agenda – also show declining confidence under Trump.
The National Federation of Independent Business survey of small business optimism has dropped every month since December 2024 and decreased more than 7 percent since then.
Inflation expectations are soaring
One of the main factors driving down consumer confidence is the expectation that Trump’s tariffs will raise consumer prices.
Every month, the University of Michigan survey asks consumers about their inflation expectations for the coming 12 months. Consumer expectations for the inflation rate in the coming year have risen dramatically, from an expectation of 2.8 percent year-over-year inflation in December 2024 to 6.5 percent in April.
Businesses feel similarly, according to a monthly Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta analysis. In December 2024, the study found that 32 percent of businesses said they expected “significant” or “very significant” price increases over the next 12 months. By April, that figure had risen to 46 percent.
And a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia survey asked manufacturers whether they are already paying more for recent transactions. The survey found a growing number of businesses that say they are paying more and a declining number saying they’re paying less. The gap has widened from 26.6 percent in December to 51 percent in April.
Economic growth forecasts are eroding
Every quarter, the Atlanta Fed releases GDPNow, a forecast of how much growth is expected in the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) – the sum of all economic activity within the country – by looking at the upward and downward movement of key economic inputs.
GDPNow has turned negative, with a projected annualised GDP shrinkage of about 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025, the first projected shrinkage the model has produced since the second quarter of 2022.
This aligns with independent estimations of the likelihood of a recession. JP Morgan Research says there’s a 60 percent chance of a recession during the next year; Goldman Sachs puts it at 45 percent; and the International Monetary Fund pegs the likelihood at 37 percent.
The stock market has plunged
Stocks have been sliding; the S&P 500, a broad stock market gauge, dropped 18.9 percent between its February 19 peak and its April 8 low, before partly bouncing back in the succeeding two weeks. Compared with the day after Trump’s November 2024 election win, the S&P 500 is now down 4.5 percent. Since Trump’s January inauguration, it is down 8.7 percent, and from its February 19 peak, it is down by 10.1 percent.
A recession is not a certainty after a stock market slide, but there’s a high correlation. A stock market tumble can cause consumers to hunker down and cut spending. If that happens, companies see sales decrease, leading them to cut their workforces and slow new investments. This makes consumers even warier about spending, perpetuating the cycle.
Since 1950, a National Bureau of Economic Research committee has declared 10 official US recessions. Declines in the Standard & Poor’s 500 accompanied seven of those. The last time a recession didn’t produce a notable S&P decline was almost a half-century ago, during the 1980 and 1982 double-dip recessions.
Of the seven recessions that accompanied stock market declines, the S&P 500 declines ranged from 18 percent to 55 percent, with the 55 percent drop occurring during the Great Recession of 2008 to 2009.
A weekly American Association of Individual Investors survey shows growing pessimism about the stock market’s ability for a short-term rebound. In late November, 39 percent of survey respondents said they were “bearish” – Wall Street jargon for “pessimistic” – about the stock market. By late April, that share had risen to 56 percent.
Small businesses are already experiencing headwinds
Beyond the numbers, we found several businesses whose leaders said Trump’s tariffs have already caused issues.
Dennison, of the Original Pancake House, said in addition to Trump’s tariffs, he’s concerned that mass deportation efforts could produce a shortage of agricultural workers, further raising ingredient prices.
Jax Ward, owner of the Crazy Squirrel Game Store in Fresno, California, said she’s experiencing not only the effect of tariffs but also the “chaotic way it’s been handled”, which “has customers hesitant to spend money”. Ward said she’s heard similar reports from her peers in the Game Manufacturers Association, an industry group.
A few publishers of tabletop games she sells have told Ward “they won’t be publishing this year, or they’re laying off employees, and that they’ve left manufactured products in China because it’s now far too expensive to import them.”
Everything from games to dice is made overseas, she said. “I’d be hard-pressed to come up with a handful of products that are both resource-sourced and manufactured in the US.”
For now, Ward said she is shifting some of her business to used games, including a large Lego section, and in-person events at her store. She’s also trying to pre-stock items before tariffs kick in, but she said not every business can do that because it requires a strong cash flow and sufficient storage space.
Ward said she knows a few store owners who are seriously considering closing their businesses. “Boardgame sales used to be considered recession-proof,” Ward said. “We’ll see if they still are.”
