Despite ongoing fears around tariffs and inflation, SymphonyAI’s newly released Grocery Sentiment Index (GSI) paints a surprisingly optimistic picture for the grocery sector in Q2 2025. The AI-driven index offers a fresh take on sentiment analysis by measuring real-world consumer behaviour rather than relying on traditional survey responses.
Unlike conventional sentiment trackers that rely on what consumers say they plan to do, the GSI analyses actual purchasing data from 64 million households across the US, Europe, and Asia. This data covers over 600 million transactions and six billion individual product purchases. Developed using SymphonyAI’s proprietary AI technologies, the GSI offers a more reliable lens into current trends and future spending intentions by tracking approximately 200 behavioural metrics.
One of the most notable insights from the GSI is the clear disconnect between consumer perception and real-world action. While economic pessimism continues to dominate headlines, the index reveals that shoppers are still spending—particularly in essential categories. The GSI measures factors such as store visits, product loyalty, and changes in basket composition due to inflation.
Looking at the recent past, the sentiment in 2022 hit a low due to rampant inflation. However, as inflationary pressures eased, sentiment slowly recovered. In Q1 2025, this trend continued, especially in the United States, where the GSI rose from 40 to 54. This indicates stronger consumer engagement despite economic uncertainties.
By contrast, sentiment in Europe and Asia took a downturn in Q1, impacted by rising prices. However, the forecast for Q2 is notably more positive. Analysts anticipate a rebound in these regions to neutral sentiment levels, bolstered by a slight uptick in unit volume and greater engagement in core grocery categories.
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